EWR Net Cancelled — measures how many cotton warehouse receipts are being cancelled (shipped out) net of new issuances. Rising = more cotton moving to export. Plotted as 4-week SMA to smooth weekly volatility.

Lagged SMA Shipments — actual USDA reported export shipments (Upland cotton, 4-week SMA) aligned to the projection date. Shows how accurate the model was historically.

Projected Exports — forward-looking export forecast based on current EWR activity. Projects ~5 weeks ahead. Extends beyond the other lines showing the current forward projection.

Formula: Proj Exports = 8,522 + (SMA Net Cancelled × 0.8502)

R² = 0.86 — the model explains 86% of export variation based on EWR warehouse activity.

Auto-updating — coefficients recalculate every Friday as new data accumulates, improving accuracy over time.

Net Cancelled = (Total Open decrease) + (New Issued increase). Positive = bullish for exports.

EWR Date — Thursday EWR snapshot date

Exports Date — corresponding USDA report date

Total Issued CMY — all receipts issued this marketing year

Total New Issued — new non-recon receipts this CMY

Held by CCC — USDA loan cotton receipts

Under Shipping — receipts under active shipping orders

Open CMY — current MY receipts not yet shipped

Total Open — all open receipts across all crop years

Net Cancelled — ΔTotal Open + ΔNew Issued

SMA Net Canc. — 4-week moving average of Net Cancelled

Shipments — USDA weekly export shipments (Upland only)

SMA Shipments — 4-week moving average of shipments

Lag SMA Ship. — SMA Shipments from 5 weeks ahead

Proj Exports — regression forecast for exports

Proj Date — date when projection is expected to materialize